Since this year, steel production capacity to effect more than expected, intermediate frequency furnace, such as "DeTiaoGang" overall cleared out backward production capacity, the recent beijing-tianjin-hebei, and the surrounding city of "2 + 26" key steel-producing region into the heating season limit production period, the most severe "shutdown" started full implementation.Under this background, the steel market prices in 2018?
Due to production next year will continue, inhibition of heating season in supply of steel to a certain extent, there are a lot of experts and the analysis of steel price comparison favors for next year.However, section steel industry well-known analysts had thought, hong kong-listed 2018 is not optimistic, steel prices have dropped space, temporarily don't say more than 5000 yuan per ton, the steel price will have it instead of next year will average about 5% lower than the current price."It is reasonable and necessary, but due to many factors of uncertainty, hong kong-listed next year is still likely to be a roller coaster."
Once day - said: "heating season limit production lead to a drop in demand for steel, but the decline is more apparent, years ago callback is unlikely to significantly.If the steel price is still high, the downstream manufacturing industry and national economy development, the government is likely to be treated like a coal pricing by monitoring large enterprises to regulate steel prices.
Exports will decline further
The general administration of customs, according to data in October 2017, China's exports of steel 2017 tons, fell by 35.3%;China steel exports in October 1-64.49 million tons, compared with last year fell 30.4%.
In verse had wins, steel exports have fallen sharply this year reason mainly is to reduce the size difference at home and abroad, many varieties price upside down, inside and outside the enterprise export momentum.Enterprise market, the profit is very good now, don't care about domestic or abroad.Next year the domestic hong kong-listed will be better, price difference is not big, inside and outside enterprise export momentum is not big, exports difficult to rebound, also fell slightly.
In addition, once day wins, said iron ore prices have downward space, coal price monitoring will be the focus for next year, the national development and reform commission, unsustainable price highs, downward probability is bigger, so the cost of raw material of steel price support strength will be weakened further.
"Because of the massive investment in recent years, the formation of capacity gradually released, Australia, Brazil and so on four big mining next year will also be added nearly 50 million tons of production capacity, is expected to increase iron ore 40 million tons, and foreign demand growth is limited, most of the delta will be going to China.Scrap supply increases, domestic iron ore supply situation will aggravate, next year's iron ore import prices will fall further, average grade of 62% Australian PB powder in 58 dollars/tons."Section has told the economic observer network, coal tar is also supply growth is greater than the demand growth phenomenon.
According to understand, because electricity prices are high, the downstream plants suffer, the national development and reform commission has extend advanced capacity release time limit in the study, advocate of coal enterprises sign a synergistic with long, and supervise the implementation."This a series of measures to restrain prices uplink have a material impact, and thermal coal, coking coal have certain substitution effect and interaction, is unfavorable to coking coal coke prices."Section has said.